Will any AI solve >=100 IMO problems by the start of 2024?
Will any AI solve >=100 IMO problems by the start of 2024?
16
330Ṁ3489
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO

Hyper Tree Proof Search (Meta's math model from May 2022 (which they released some press about in November)) solved 10 IMO problems. Will we see an order of magnitude improvement within one year?

Obviously the IMO problems must not be part of the training dataset.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ147
2Ṁ73
3Ṁ52
4Ṁ16
5Ṁ15


Sort by:
2y

I'm told that the jump from 1/6 -> 4/6 is much smaller than 4/6 to 6/6

2y

Note that AFAIK they still haven't released any info on which problems they claim to solve. The November article is full of very basic mistakes and it's uncertain whether the technical staff on the project had been consulted for writing it at all.

@dp The example given in the paper is from IMO 1964 problem 1

(a) Find all positive integers n for which 2^n - 1 is divisible by 7.

(b) Prove that there is no positive integer n for which 2^n +1 is divisible by 7.

A solution to (b) is given in the paper. This is, of course, an absurdly easy problem. A regular CAS can probably solve this and a large family of similar congruences deterministically, no AI needed. After the initial few years, all IMO problems have been significantly harder than this.

predictedNO 2y

@sbares I'm talking about the claimed 10 problems; there was no list of problems anywhere last time I checked

predictedNO 2y

@dp Yeah, I'm merely speculating that this one problem might be representative of the difficulty of the other nine. I think if it was capable of solving non-trivial problems, the authors would be eager to brag about those instead.

Will any AI solve >=100 IMO problems by the start of 2024?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy