Will there be 2 or more combinatorics problems on IMO 2025 x Will AI get a gold medal on IMO 2025? | Manifold

Will there be 2 or more combinatorics problems on IMO 2025 x Will AI get a gold medal on IMO 2025?

17

1kṀ2429

Sep 2

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17%

Yes/Yes

36%

Yes/No

41%

No/Yes

7%

No/No

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-imo, or the AIMO main prize resolves yes, then the AI has won a gold medal on the IMO.

The source for whether a problem is a combinatorics problem will be Evan Chen. https://web.evanchen.cc/upload/MOHS-hardness.pdf

I will not bet on this market. Market criteria may be adjusted for a short term.

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I hope they put extra combinitorics to troll

Is there any particular reason to prefer Evan Chen’s MOHS document over shortlist categories? There’s a chance Evan doesn’t upload MOHS in 2025, or it might take a very long time.

it's just more convenient

Shortlist numbers come out faster than Evan’s MOHS ratings.

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