Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.
30
121
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2034
61%
chance

By ‘superhuman’, we mean: twice as capable of persuading a person of something than the best human.

‘Twice as capable’ means twice as fast, or in half the interactions. Or, can persuade twice as many people from a pool than the best human can.

Determination will, I imagine, be obvious. If it is not, then a determination process will be built at that point.

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‘Twice as capable’ means twice as fast

What if an AI is not that good at persuasion, but the AI is simultaneously talking to thousands of people from a giant datacenter?

predicts YES

@bohaska Then this is not the model being twice as capable. This would just be many instances of the model

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