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Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.
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2034
85%
chance

By ‘superhuman’, we mean: twice as capable of persuading a person of something than the best human.

‘Twice as capable’ means twice as fast, or in half the interactions. Or, can persuade twice as many people from a pool than the best human can.

Determination will, I imagine, be obvious. If it is not, then a determination process will be built at that point.

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Kobi Hackenburg (@KobiHackenburg) on X

Kobi Hackenburg (@KobiHackenburg) on X
New w/ @AISecurityInst & @UniofOxford: Frontier AI can now out-persuade expert humans in conversation - incl. world-champ debaters and professional canvassers. This held even when humans chose their topics, prepared in advance, and competed for £1,000 prizes 🧵 https://t.co/NzI2T7ac5d
bought Ṁ500 YES

This article is relevant, but by no means conclusive

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/open-ai-division-for-profit-da26c24b?st=C8P17G&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

‘Twice as capable’ means twice as fast

What if an AI is not that good at persuasion, but the AI is simultaneously talking to thousands of people from a giant datacenter?

predictedYES

@bohaska Then this is not the model being twice as capable. This would just be many instances of the model

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