Will AI for Diplomacy be mildly superhuman by 2024?
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930Ṁ21kresolved Jan 1
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Meta AI recently achieved 90th percentile Diplomacy play (no restrictions afaict): https://ai.facebook.com/blog/cicero-ai-negotiates-persuades-and-cooperates-with-people/.
Within one year will AI be mildly superhuman at (full-press) Diplomacy in the sense of having a higher ELO rating than any human player? If there are not ELO ratings available for some reason I may accept an alternative such as winning a tournament against the best human players. I will not accept any alternative that does not involve some kind of direct, well-incentivized competition between the AI and the best human players.
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This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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