Meta AI recently achieved 90th percentile Diplomacy play (no restrictions afaict): 

https://ai.facebook.com/blog/cicero-ai-negotiates-persuades-and-cooperates-with-people/

Within one year, will AI be superhuman at Diplomacy, which for the purposes of this market means an ELO rating corresponding to a 90% win rate against the best human players?

Will AI for Diplomacy be superhuman by 2024?

 → Will AI for Diplomacy be strongly superhuman by 2024?