Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it actually create successors? | Manifold

Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it actually create successors?

2

Ṁ90Ṁ20

2060

64%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

For the purposes of this market, a "seed AI" is any AI that either creates discrete "child" AIs, or engages in extensive self-modification such that the post-modification AI is significantly more powerful/different. (e.g. the seed AI jumps to a larger server and runs gradient descent for 1 year).

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Related questions

Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it be able to align its future iterations with itself?

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Can AI grow corn?

Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

By 2028, will we have AI resuscitation programmes that would clone defunct sites and regenerate them via generative AI?

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