Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it actually create successors? | Manifold

Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it actually create successors?

2

Ṁ90Ṁ20

2060

64%

chance

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1M

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For the purposes of this market, a "seed AI" is any AI that either creates discrete "child" AIs, or engages in extensive self-modification such that the post-modification AI is significantly more powerful/different. (e.g. the seed AI jumps to a larger server and runs gradient descent for 1 year).

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Related questions

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Will Generative AI become extinct before 2100?

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