Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it actually create successors? | Manifold

Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it actually create successors?

2

90Ṁ20

2060

64%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

For the purposes of this market, a "seed AI" is any AI that either creates discrete "child" AIs, or engages in extensive self-modification such that the post-modification AI is significantly more powerful/different. (e.g. the seed AI jumps to a larger server and runs gradient descent for 1 year).

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Related questions

Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it be able to align its future iterations with itself?

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Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs?

By the end of 2025, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

By 2028, will we have AI resuscitation programmes that would clone defunct sites and regenerate them via generative AI?

Conditional on a major breakthrough happening in physics thanks to AI, will it be due to simulation based inference?

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