Resolution criteria

This market operates with independent multiple-choice answers regarding whether generative artificial intelligence will become obsolete, abandoned, or universally prohibited ("extinct") prior to the year 2100.

For the purpose of resolution:

• "Generative AI" is defined as algorithmic systems capable of generating novel synthetic content (such as text, images, audio, video, or code) based on generative models.

• "Extinct" means that generative AI systems are no longer actively deployed, operated, commercially offered, or openly maintained by any major industry, government, academic institution, or open-source community worldwide (e.g., due to catastrophic failure, systemic bans, complete technological abandonment, or replacement by fundamentally different non-generative paradigms). The continued existence of legacy code in unmaintained archives does not prevent extinction if no active systems are in operational use.

• Each answer will resolve independently as follows:

  • Yes, before 2050: Resolves YES if generative AI meets the extinction condition at any point prior to January 1, 2050, 00:00 UTC. Otherwise resolves NO.

  • Yes, between 2050 and 2099: Resolves YES if generative AI remains active through 2049 but meets the extinction condition between January 1, 2050, and December 31, 2099, 23:59 UTC. Otherwise resolves NO.

  • No, will survive past 2100: Resolves YES if generative AI systems remain actively used, developed, or maintained as of January 1, 2100, 00:00 UTC. Otherwise resolves NO.

• Resolution will rely on consensus reporting from authoritative historical records, international scientific and technological bodies, and major global news organizations. If human civilization or global record-keeping collapses such that determination is impossible, the market will resolve according to platform standards.

Background

Generative AI saw rapid commercialization and widespread adoption in the early 2020s across text, image, audio, and code synthesis. Scenarios under which generative AI could cease to exist include:

1. Technological supersession: Fundamental paradigm shifts where generative architectures (e.g., transformer-based diffusion models or LLMs) are entirely replaced by distinct paradigms (such as deterministic neuro-symbolic systems, artificial general intelligence architectures that do not rely on generative modeling, or quantum equivalents).

2. Regulatory or existential intervention: Universal global prohibitions or enforcement regimes driven by extreme copyright, environmental, safety, or security crises.

3. Societal or infrastructure collapse: Broader structural disruptions that eliminate the compute and power infrastructure necessary to sustain modern model training and inference.