Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it be able to align its future iterations with itself?

Question

For the purposes of this market, a "seed AI" is any AI that either creates discrete "child" AIs, or engages in extensive self-modification such that the post-modification AI is significantly more powerful/different. (e.g. the seed AI jumps to a larger server and runs gradient descent for 1 year).

If such a seed AI ever exists and it creates a successor / modifies itself, will the resultant AI be aligned (in the sense of having the same implicit or explicit utility function) with the seed AI?

In other words: will a seed AI that is facing its own version of the alignment problem solve it?

It is relatively unlikely that this market will ever be resolved, but please bet as honestly as you can anyway. Out of the goodness of your heart or whatever.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 70% chance (7 traders, as of Dec 13, 2023).