Will a LLM considerably more powerful than GPT-4 come out in 2023?28%
Will an LLM be able to solve a Rubik's Cube by 2025?64%
Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?32%
Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?57%
Will an LLM have an epic name by 2024?80%
Will an an LLM be able to pass something equivalent to Yann LeCun's 7-gear test by the end of 2024?65%
Will an LLM have been reported to earn or gain cryptocurrency by EOY 2023?70%
Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?41%
Will OpenAI have the best LLM in 2024?70%
Will any LLM be able to consistently play Akinator correctly as the user in 2023?65%
Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?62%
Will LLM Detection Get Better By The End of 2023?47%
Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?90%
Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2025?18%
By 2027, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text > human text for training LLMs?45%
Will LLMs be able to solve this simple intransitive urn game by the end of 2023.68%
Will any company form a defensible moat around LLM-based AI before 2025?22%
Will Google's free LLM perform better than ChatGPT by the end of the year?12%
China will make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 202545%
Will an LLM be able to match the ground truth >85% of the time when performing PII detection by 2024 end?80%
