This market is remarkable... no one has clear lead. Personally, I'm somewhat confident it will either be Google or Meta.

Most likely ranking is:

1. Google

2. Meta

3. xAI

4. Anthropic

5. OpenAI

6. Other

@jim I'm skeptical Meta will top the rankings due to the timing of releases. They're likely to release a SOTA in 3 months or so, making it unlikely they'll be the "last and best" model at the end of 2025

The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. Please read the full announcement here. The mana market will continue as usual.

Only markets closing before March 3rd will be left open for trading and will be resolved as usual.

Users will be able to cashout or donate their entire sweepcash balance, regardless of whether it has been won in a sweepstakes or not, by March 28th (for amounts above our minimum threshold of $25).

o4 may be very cracked

@MalachiteEagle are they even adding their models to the arena anymore

@MalachiteEagle don't you mean o9?

https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/s/VVJo2E38iI

Claims of intentional manipulation in favor of Gemini to help win Polymarket bets

Updated title to make sure it is 100% matching with the description.

this is a duplicate of this question

This question is about the ELO rating and not the rank, yes? If so, I suggest changing the title.

Can I suggest making the title "the end of 2025" instead of "the end of the year", at least before the end of 2024

@dominic yikes, good catch lol