By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?
28
1kṀ20102027
64%
chance
1H
6H
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I am including both Adam and close variants (e.g. AdamW).
To judge it I will look at the top 20 most cited ML papers released that year. If >= 50% of them use a novel optimization algorithm, market resolves YES.
If Adam is replaced by an existing optimization algorithm, or it remains the most common optimization algorithm, market resolves NO.
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