By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?
28
1kṀ20102027
64%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I am including both Adam and close variants (e.g. AdamW).
To judge it I will look at the top 20 most cited ML papers released that year. If >= 50% of them use a novel optimization algorithm, market resolves YES.
If Adam is replaced by an existing optimization algorithm, or it remains the most common optimization algorithm, market resolves NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?
43% chance
Will "Genetic Algorithm" come back before 2031?
39% chance
Will an algorithm be able to work on million-line codebases before 2026?
37% chance
On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?
70% chance
Will advanced AI systems be found to have faked data on algorithm improvements for purposes of positive reinforcement by end of 2035?
50% chance
Will researchers extract a novel program from the weights of an LLM into a Procedural/OO programming language by 2026?
27% chance
Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2025?
86% chance
Will the largest AI training run in 2025 utilize Sophia, Second-order Clipped Stochastic Optimization?
17% chance
Will we solve AI alignment by 2026?
1% chance
Will async SGD become the main large-scale NN optimization method before 2031?
78% chance