By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?
28
1kṀ2010
2027
64%
chance

I am including both Adam and close variants (e.g. AdamW).

To judge it I will look at the top 20 most cited ML papers released that year. If >= 50% of them use a novel optimization algorithm, market resolves YES.

If Adam is replaced by an existing optimization algorithm, or it remains the most common optimization algorithm, market resolves NO.

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