Most effective strategy in prediction markets
16
375Ṁ384
Dec 1
93%
Monitor news and act quickly
85%
Monitor new markets and trade early
76%
Arbitrage
76%
Nothing ever happens
76%
Develop a good sense of probability and think independently
72%
Follow most accurate market (Polymarket?)
69%
Follow good traders
62%
Build technical prediction models
59%
Extracting residual liquidity in resolving markets
57%
Use historical data and analytics
50%
Anti-follow bad traders
48%
Buy low sell high before resolution to reduce risks
43%
Bet on rare events
39%
Gather information unknown to average traders
20%
Ask Large Language Models

What trading strategies do you find most effective (minimize input, maximize output) in prediction markets?

An anwer will resolve to its market price percentage at the closing of the market.

You are welcome to add answers.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

It's funny. I don't do any of these really.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen What do you do then?

@kamn Not easy to describe, apart from the fact that it involves very disparate ways of thinking, never holding slavishly to a strategy, but letting the market define how I approach it.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen How about "Develop a good sense of probability and think independently"?

@vdb My sense of probabilities is probably piss poor, espescially at the extremes. I may be more adept at seeing things as complexly as possible.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Yeah that's hard for me to put into any strategy.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy