Why do people think real-money prediction markets are accurate? They gave Trump a 65% chance of winning in 2024, when every expert analysis said it was 50-50. Or do people think that a gambling site is where all the real experts are?

@ItsMe agree poly was distorted on trump 2024 (even though they ended up right) but n=1. if nothing else, polymarket has the most volume and traders of any prediction market

I said see results because I look at the results of events to find out what happened

I don't know much about the other sites, but naturally a reputation based prediction market should have better calibration.