On average, which prediction market do you trust the most? | Manifold

On average, which prediction market do you trust the most?

49

Dec 9

Manifold

Polymarket

Kalshi

See results

which is closest to the 'true' odds?

Predictions on Predictions

Meta-Forecasting

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I said see results because I look at the results of events to find out what happened

I don't know much about the other sites, but naturally a reputation based prediction market should have better calibration.

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