Conditional on the PRC invading taiwan will the united states declare war on the PRC?
27
400Ṁ3753resolved Jan 1
Resolved
N/A1D
1W
1M
ALL
Note: this market has an over 90% chance to resolve N/A but that's actually a feature, how do markets behave when the most probable result is getting voided.
Note: Something similar to the gulf of Tonkin resolution will count as "declaring war" even if no formal declaration of war is made (since you know nobody officially declares war anymore)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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