These are the Money&Macro predictions for 2026:

(101) The 5 megatrends that will dominate 2026 - YouTube

These will resolve according to the analysis by Money&Macro (Yuri) himself.

If he does not resolve, I'll make an analysis using LLM's.

1) But first, let's get into a prediction that I'm actually very confident about. Prediction number one, China will dominate more and more industries. Now the core of this

prediction is that after muscling their way into the smartphone industry, ship building industry, battery industry, drone industry, and car industry, China will challenge previously untouchable Western giants like Elon Musk's SpaceX in 2026. (80% confidence)

2) So through its policy of self-reliance, China is now threatening both industries in advanced and developing nations. This is why I predict the trend of both developing nations like Brazil, Mexico and India as well as advanced nations like the Netherlands and Canada hitting China with more and more tariffs or other restrictions will continue.

As I talked about in my multipolar order video, one of the main predictions of the emerging field of geoeconomics is that as we transition from a world dominated by one superpower to one by multiple great powers, it's likely that we see more use of economic weapons like tariffs, sanctions, and other economic weapons as countries

experiment with how far they can go in this new economic order before facing blowback. (60% confidence)

3) Government debt will increasingly be a limit. Indeed this is basically the same prediction as I made last year. The reason for it is simple. The world continues to age. The world is used to using stimulus to get out of crisis. Last year, wear governments like

the UK and French governments changed spending plans as a consequence of their

high debt and increasing interest rates. But they did not tackle the underlying issue, which is that France and the UK spend way more than other countries on pensioners. (85% confidence)

4) The AI bubble will not burst yet. ... However, the AI industry today is different than the

internet industry in 2001 for two reasons. First, some of the most valuable companies today like OpenAI do have unprecedented numbers of active users. I mean, OpenAI already has double the number of users than Netflix and its valuation is just above that of Netflix. Of course, OpenAI has not proven that it can get many of its users to pay as much as they do Netflix yet. And this brings us to reason number two. If we compare

US stock price today compared to earnings that they actually earn, the picture still looks much less like a bubble than it did in 2001, especially when it comes to the biggest winner now, Nvidia. They are already earning the revenue now that justifies their high

stock price. (75% confidence for 2026)

5) China will blockade or quarantine Taiwan. ... Now, alarmingly, in a recent report, they pulled 35 Taiwanese experts and 52 US experts, and most of them thought that while China does not have the capability to invade Taiwan yet, they do have the capability to isolate it from the outside world through a naval blockade, which could the island. A blockade means that China would block all entry to Taiwan via the sea and potentially air. Under international law, a blockade against another nation is considered an act of war. However, only a few nations recognize Taiwan as a nation. (25% confidence)