Resolution Criteria

I will ask grok on Dec 31, 2026 the following question:

"Has one or more of the following prominent people in 2026, advocated for the use of prediction markets as an architectural or engineering strategy? "Advocates" means explicitly recommending prediction markets as a tool for design decisions, project management, or engineering processes—through published articles, interviews, social media posts, conference talks, or similar public statements. The advocacy must be substantive (not passing mentions) and clearly frame prediction markets as relevant to architecture or engineering work. The list is Andrej Karpathy, Yann LeCun, Andrew Ng, Fei-Fei Li, Lex Fridman, Elon Musk, John Carmack, Kai-Fu Lee, Chris Lattner, Jim Keller, Timnit Gebru, François Chollet, Gary Marcus, Ethan Mollick, Jim Fan, Demis Hassabis, Ilya Sutskever (via updates/mentions), Beff Jezos, Rowan Cheung, Santiago Valdarrama

Current answer from grok is no.

"I found no evidence of prediction markets being advocated as an architectural or engineering strategy by the listed individuals in 2025 or early 2026. The search results show extensive discussion of AI trends, architecture/engineering industry developments, and various 2026 predictions, but no mentions of prediction markets as a design or engineering methodology."

Background

Prediction markets—mechanisms where participants trade contracts based on uncertain future outcomes—have gained attention in AI and tech circles as tools for improving decision-making under uncertainty. While they've been used in some organizational contexts for forecasting, their adoption as a formal architectural or engineering methodology remains niche. The listed individuals represent prominent voices in AI, technology leadership, and innovation, spanning researchers (Karpathy, LeCun, Ng, Li), entrepreneurs (Musk, Jezos), engineers (Carmack, Keller, Lattner), and commentators (Fridman, Mollick, Marcus).

Considerations

This market depends on public statements being discoverable and unambiguous. Indirect references or theoretical discussions of prediction mechanisms may not qualify as advocacy for prediction markets specifically as an architectural strategy. The bar is substantive public recommendation, not mere acknowledgment of the concept.