Will a video essay on the Whales vs Minnows drama drop before the end of 2023
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resolved May 16
Resolved
YES

This market resolves YES if I am able to watch a video essay focusing on the Whales vs Minnows debacle in 2023.

What exactly is a video essay? Hard to say but I'll try to use my best judgement.

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admin resolved

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@turb resolve?

bought Ṁ55 of YES

It's here! The full, 17-hour long Whales vs. Minnows video essay: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3Z7zEc7AXQ

predicted YES

@JosephNoonan dude! Wow. So high quality! I wanna learn from this and make a better one

predicted YES

@firstuserhere Sorry, but I'm never gonna give you my trade secrets - it would jeopardize my dominance in the ultra-long video essay scene. I hope I haven't let you down too much.

predicted YES

@JosephNoonan Oh, well. Worth a shot. But yeah, it's a competitive edge, you shouldn't give it up like that, EVER

bought Ṁ200 of YES


Essay dropped, what do you say?

predicted NO

@firstuserhere well done

predicted NO

@firstuserhere this is way better than i expected

predicted YES

@Conflux Thanks!

@firstuserhere This is incredible! I'd like to award you a personal bounty of Ṁ5,000 for your efforts. Check your email.

predicted YES

@SG thanks for the feedback, and thanks for the bounty!

@firstuserhere looking forward to the sequel

Let's just say I have something in the works.

Note: Chad is an alt account and the user who will create the video essay is well known and features on both top of all time leaderboards.

This should be the thumbnail for the video essay:

@JosephNoonan it will be

@JosephNoonan who to credit?

@Chad Whom should I credit for this particular strikingly apt image for the cover of a video essay?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Chad I think the original creator was blasé dracaena on the Manifold Discord. I'm not sure what their username on Manifold is, though.

I'm willing to be interviewed!

@Conflux I will interview you then.

Have any other video essays about Manifold appeared in the past? Is a specific person making them or what? Any linkers in chat?

hmm perhaps I should have set a view minimum on said video...

bought Ṁ1 of YES

@turb length minimum is better.

@Dreamingpast yea fair point, I didn't define "video essay" and it's certainly up to interpretation. IMO 10 minutes is a fair minimum length based on my subjective video essay experience 🙃. I'll add that to the description if no one objects.

@turb You mean it doesn't have to be a 12 hour long video essay where the essayist starts out by explaining the entire history of prediction markets, the EA/rationalist movement and Manifold's creation, the history of the site including previous big markets, and an extensive profile of Isaac King himself, and then goes into a detailed analysis of everything that happened in the market and its aftermath, with some tangentially-related intermission segments for good measure? Disappointing.