Will I talk with a whale by 2027? 🐳
65
799
1K
2027
10%
chance

Will I have a real conversation with the massive marine mammal that both I and it can understand? A human big-money trader on Manifold does not count!

The most likely way for this to happen if people successfully decode the whale language with llms.

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Interactive bioacoustic playback as a tool for detecting and exploring nonhuman intelligence: “conversing” with an Alaskan humpback whale https://peerj.com/articles/16349/

predicts YES
bought Ṁ25 YES from 10% to 11%

predicts YES
  • Does it have to be a biological whale?

  • Are there limitations on how long the translation process takes?

  • Would you accept it if it's possible in-principle?

  • Does the whale have to understand you?

    • What if whale talk can be converted to human talk but human talk to whale talk is a compression of a very high dimensional space to a very low dimensional space such that most significant data is lost or very hard to recover?

@firstuserhere yes, yes, no, yes

whale email does not count as talking. idk what the minimum bits/sec should be. i am open to suggestions

it has to understand me at least a little. like a human toddler. i’d be happy to talk with an extremely limited words set

This is such a cool market. I am less ambitious on the timeline but I’m so glad that other people want this 🥲

More whale hopes and dreams: /Gen/will-ai-or-humans-decode-and-transl

INFO: Are you in a position to actually have a conversation with a whale (through a career or life circumstance) if such a translator actually existed? Basically, am I betting on simply whether or not the translator exists, or am I betting on that and whether or not you can locate a whale friend to have a conversation with?

@ChrisMills I am in no particular position to talk to whales at the moment.
I am not particularly qualified to be part of a "first contact" team. I do not know much about marine biology or linguistics.

I am in general very excited about technology and would probably do it if given the chance!

bought Ṁ5 YES from 9% to 10%

I hope so, but I would bet against.

bought Ṁ100 of NO
bought Ṁ5 of YES

@NoaNabeshima It might be tricky to get a praire dog call autoencoder to break them down into the right symbols. Similar things might slow down dolphin vocalization autoencoder progress?

https://youtu.be/y1kXCh496U0?si=Io-9Z5SfIaxTsu5S

bought Ṁ5 of YES

curious

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