Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States enters a recession that can be primarily attributed to Donald Trump's tariff policies and trade war actions during his second term. It resolves to "No" if no recession occurs or if a recession occurs but cannot be primarily attributed to Trump's trade policies.

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Background

Donald Trump has proposed significant tariffs if elected to a second term, including:

• A universal 10% tariff on all imports

• Additional tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods

• Tariffs of up to 100-150% on certain products from specific countries

These proposed tariffs would be substantially higher than those implemented during his first term, when he imposed tariffs of 25% on steel, 10% on aluminum, and various tariffs on Chinese goods.

Considerations

• Economic experts are divided on the impact of Trump's proposed tariffs. Some economists warn they could reduce GDP growth by approximately one percentage point and increase inflation.

• Tariffs typically raise prices for consumers and businesses, potentially reducing purchasing power and business investment.

• The Federal Reserve's ability to respond to economic conditions may be complicated by tariff-induced inflation.

• Market uncertainty about trade policy could itself impact business investment decisions.

• Other factors beyond tariffs could contribute to or prevent a recession, including monetary policy, global economic conditions, and fiscal policy.