Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve based on the overall assessment of President Donald Trump's first 100 days during his second term, which began on January 20, 2025. The evaluation will consider the administration's achievements, policy implementations, and public reception up to April 29, 2025. The market will resolve as follows:

• Yes: If the majority of reputable news outlets and political analysts characterize Trump's first 100 days as successful, citing significant accomplishments and positive public reception.

• No: If the majority of reputable news outlets and political analysts characterize Trump's first 100 days as unsuccessful, citing a lack of accomplishments, policy failures, or negative public reception.

Background:

President Donald Trump was re-elected in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, securing 315 electoral votes and reclaiming the White House. (lemonde.fr) His campaign focused on addressing economic challenges, border security, and international relations. (factualamerica.com)

During his first 100 days of the second term, President Trump has taken several notable actions:

• Executive Orders: Issued 140 executive orders, many of which have been described as radical and controversial, leading to debates about their constitutionality. (elpais.com)

• Immigration Policy: Implemented aggressive immigration measures, including deportations without judicial review and revocation of birthright citizenship, causing alarm among immigrant communities. (apnews.com)

• Trade Measures: Initiated trade wars with countries such as Canada, Mexico, and China, resulting in global economic uncertainty and strained diplomatic relations. (apnews.com)

• Foreign Policy: Adopted an isolationist stance, withdrawing from international agreements and reducing diplomatic engagements, which has affected the U.S.'s global standing. (apnews.com)

• Domestic Governance: Appointed Elon Musk to lead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), resulting in significant cuts to the federal workforce and the dismantling of various departments. (apnews.com)

These actions have led to a polarized public opinion, with supporters praising the administration's decisive measures and critics expressing concern over the potential erosion of democratic institutions and international alliances.

Considerations:

• Media Bias: Different news outlets may have varying perspectives on the administration's success, influenced by their editorial stances.

• Public Opinion: Polls and surveys may reflect a divided electorate, with opinions on success differing across demographic and political lines.

• Policy Impact: The long-term effects of the administration's policies may not be fully realized within the first 100 days, making immediate assessments challenging.

Traders should consider these factors when making predictions about the market's resolution.