@AaronSimansky this will resolve "yes" if within the first 100 days of Donald Trump's administration, a special counsel is appointed under the provisions of 28 C.F.R. § 600.1

@AaronSimansky The resolution condition is met if the United States officially withdraws from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) within the first 100 days of Donald Trump's presidency starting in 2025. Withdrawal is defined as the U.S. formally notifying NATO of its intent to exit the organization, in accordance with Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty, and ceasing to participate in NATO operations and obligations.

The resolution will rely on official government documentation and announcements, including:

• Official U.S. State Department communication to NATO.

• NATO's acknowledgment of the U.S. withdrawal.

• White House announcements.

• Congressional records (if legislation is involved).

The condition is met if:

• The U.S. formally submits a written notification to NATO of its intent to withdraw, as required by Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

• The U.S. ceases to participate in NATO activities, including military operations and strategic planning.

• Partial actions (e.g., reducing funding, withdrawing troops, or signaling an intent to leave without formal notification) do not satisfy the condition.

Temporary suspension of participation, threats to leave NATO, or delays in the withdrawal process beyond the 100-day timeframe do not meet the condition.

Reducing involvement, withholding funding, or limiting participation without formal withdrawal as defined by NATO's treaty terms does not meet the condition.

@AaronSimansky The resolution condition is met if the United States government officially and completely lifts all existing sanctions against Russia during Donald Trump's first 100 days. Sanctions include financial, trade, travel, military, and diplomatic restrictions imposed by executive order, legislation, or other official means.

The resolution will rely on official government documentation and announcements, including:

• The Federal Register (publication of sanctions removal).

• Official White House communications.

• U.S. Department of the Treasury (Office of Foreign Assets Control updates).

• Congressional records (if sanctions are repealed by legislation).

The condition is met if all U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia are officially removed and no new sanctions are imposed within three months.

• The condition is not met if any sanctions remain in place

• Lifting certain sanctions or categories of sanctions (e.g., on specific individuals or industries) does not meet the condition. The removal must encompass all sanctions on Russia.

• Temporary suspensions or waivers of sanctions do not meet the condition. The removal must be permanent or effective for the remainder of Trump's presidency.

@AaronSimansky The resolution condition is met if the United States government officially and completely stops providing all forms of military aid to Ukraine during Donald Trump's first 100 days. Military aid includes weapons, ammunition, defense equipment, training, intelligence support, or any other assistance directly intended for Ukraine's military operations.

The resolution will rely on official government statements, legislation, and budgetary documents, including:

• Acts of Congress.

• Defense Department budget allocations or reports.

• Official White House communications.

To satisfy the condition, the United States must entirely halt the provision of military aid to Ukraine for at least 30 consecutive days.

• Temporary pauses due to delays in delivery or administrative issues do not count unless explicitly stated as a complete cessation of aid.

• Non-military aid (e.g., humanitarian or economic aid) does not affect the resolution.

• Reductions in aid, pauses in specific programs, or conditional aid (e.g., tied to certain benchmarks) do not meet the condition.

@AaronSimansky Won’t happen until the TCJA expires at the end of 2025.

@traders I will also subsidize (i.e. compensate you for the cost of creating) any answers that are of very high-quality. Your high-quality answers need to be ones that would attract more traders and that have clear resolution criteria. Any very high-quality answer should be replied to this comment. Please keep in mind that for your market to be compensated by me. I will let you know before you add it. Please do not assume that I will compensate a market if I have not said so.

@traders I will subsidize (i.e. compensate you for the cost of adding the market) the first 10 to 15 good-quality answers. If you feel you have a good-quality answer, please reply to this comment with that answer, and if I think it is a good quality, I will subsidize it. A good quality answer for me has to include clear resolution criteria. Please keep in mind that for your market to be compensated by me. I will let you know before you add it. Please do not assume that I will compensate a market if I have not said so.

@AaronSimansky by subsidise, do you mean adding liquidity to the option, or do you mean paying us some or all of the mana we spent to add the option?

@TheAllMemeingEye by subsidize, I mean, I will add the answer for you and bear all of the costs related to that. Or in the alternative, you will add the answer and I will send you 100 mana as a subsidy so that you can get the bonuses. However, please note if you add the answer, please wait for confirmation from me that I will subsidize. Don't just expect that I will subsidize.

@AaronSimansky would any of the following be subsidisable if I added them?

• The US declares war against a UN recognised state

• The US leaves NATO

• The US ceases all military aid to Ukraine

• The US lifts all sanctions against Russia

• Trump uses presidential immunity to openly commit any crime

• The US applies sanctions to Israel

@TheAllMemeingEye I'll add these 3 myself if you are ok with it:

• The US ceases all military aid to Ukraine

• The US lifts all sanctions against Russia

• The US leaves NATO

@AaronSimansky ok 👍

@AaronSimansky This will resolve to "Yes" if the justice department, the Trump administration, or Anthony Fauci confirms that he is the target of a criminal investigation by the federal government of the United States.

@AaronSimansky The U.S. government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point in Trump's first 100 days. The U.S. government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves.

@AaronSimansky The resolution condition is met if Donald Trump, during his presidency starting in 2025, formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1601 et seq.).

The resolution will rely on official government documentation and announcements, including:

• The Federal Register (publication of the emergency declaration).

• Official White House communications.

• Congressional records (if the emergency is subject to Congressional review).

Secondary verification may include reputable news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters).

The declaration must be new and initiated by Trump during his 2025 presidency. Extending, modifying, or continuing an emergency declared by a previous president does not count.

Announcements, intentions, or proposals to declare a national emergency without formal invocation of the National Emergencies Act do not satisfy the condition.

@AaronSimansky The resolution condition is met if Donald Trump, during his presidency starting in 2025, implements a legal measure that effectively ends federal taxation on income earned as tips. This may include legislative changes, executive orders, or regulatory modifications that explicitly exempt tips from federal income taxes.

The resolution will rely on official government records and documentation, such as:

• Updates to the U.S. Tax Code or IRS regulations.

• Legislation passed by Congress and signed into law.

• Executive orders or administrative rulings with legal effect.

• Statements or guidance from the IRS or Department of the Treasury.

Acceptable secondary sources include reputable news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters).

If partial actions occur (e.g., a proposal to end taxes on tips without implementation or measures that only reduce but do not eliminate taxation), the condition is not considered met. The exemption must be fully enforceable for the resolution to count as "Yes."

@AaronSimansky this will resolve yes if there's any formal statement of policy, recommending the removal of fluoride in drinking water

@AaronSimansky This will resolve yes if Donald Trump signs a law that nationally restricts abortion to a greater extent than it was allowed to be restricted under Planned Parenthood v Casey

@AaronSimansky shouldn't it be for if it's totally illegal nationwide after conception if it's a 'ban', not just any greater restriction? That's what I traded based on

@TheAllMemeingEye current proposals that are being taken seriously are not bans after conception, for example, Senator Graham's abortion ban as well as the ban that led to the overturning of Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey are being called a bans despite not banning abortion until after 15 weeks. The line drawn by Planned Parenthood v. Casey, making bans on abortion before viability (other than for the life of the mother) unconstitutional, seems like a clear and accepted line for this market. Also, when people talk about an abortion ban from conception, they generally refer to it as a "total abortion ban" not simply "an abortion ban"

@TheAllMemeingEye you can add a post-conception ban being signed into law if you would like

@AaronSimansky this will resolve "yes" if both parties to the conflict agree to a cease-fire that does not have an end date and is not breached within 14 days after it is implemented

@AaronSimansky this will resolve "yes" if both parties to the conflict agree to a cease-fire that does not have an end date and is not breached within 14 days after it is implemented

@AaronSimansky what's wrong with preaching? /s

@TheAllMemeingEye I was having a fun dyslexia text-to-speech moment. Breached is what I meant to say.