@AaronSimansky

The current status of government opening is available here.

The market will resolve YES if there is a notice that the U.S. federal government is at least partially shut down in the market time scale due to a lapse in appropriations. Notices of a lapse in appropriations resulting in emergency furloughs or impacted government operations will lead to a resolution of YES. Notices of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not lead to a resolution of YES.

@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that has the effect of eliminating time changes (currently biannual) associated with Daylight Saving Time in the United States by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. This includes legislation or actions that standardize time practices across most states, even if some states opt to maintain different practices. The legislation or action does not need to be binding or enforced in all states for this market to resolve to "Yes." The resolution will consider such legislation or action valid regardless of whether its effective date falls after the deadline for this market, provided it is enacted or signed before the deadline.

@AaronSimansky This will resolve to yes if there are any publicly filed charging documents, charging a member of the January 6 committee with any crime in federal court.

@AaronSimansky This will resolve to "Yes" if the justice department, court fillings, the Trump administration, or a member of the January 6th committee confirms that they are the target of a criminal investigation by the federal government of the United States.

@JessicaEvans These are my proposed rules for your question. Please let me know within 12 hours if you would like to modify the rules.

Rules:
§1 - Condition Definition:
The resolution condition is met if, within the first 100 days of Donald Trump's presidency starting in 2025:

• The President announces publicly the intent to implement a federal ban on gender-affirming medical treatments for transgender youth under the age of 18, and

• This announcement is followed by a significant federal action aimed at enacting or enforcing such a ban. Federal actions may include issuing an executive order, signing legislation, or directing federal agencies to implement rules prohibiting such treatments.
  

§2 - Definition of "Gender-Affirming Medical Treatments":
For the purposes of this market, gender-affirming medical treatments include:

• Hormonal treatments: Use of puberty blockers (e.g., gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists) or cross-sex hormones (e.g., testosterone, estrogen) for the purpose of aligning physical characteristics with gender identity.

• Surgical interventions: Any surgical procedures intended to alter physical sex characteristics in alignment with gender identity (e.g., chest reconstruction, genital surgeries).

• Other medical therapies: Any additional medical procedures or prescriptions explicitly provided as part of gender transition care.

The ban must explicitly target one or more of these categories for transgender youth under the age of 18.

§3 - Definition of "National Ban":
The condition is satisfied if both of the following occur within the 100-day timeframe:

• A public announcement by the President explicitly calling for the prohibition of gender-affirming medical treatments for transgender youth nationwide.

• A concrete federal action that materially advances the implementation of this prohibition, such as:

  • Issuance of an executive order directing agencies to restrict such treatments.

  • Introduction or passage of federal legislation.

  • Regulatory changes by federal agencies such as the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

§4 - Partial Actions or Intentions:

• An announcement without follow-up action does not meet the condition.

• Isolated federal actions without an explicit public commitment of intent to implement a national ban do not meet the condition.

• Temporary restrictions, proposals without enforcement mechanisms, or symbolic gestures do not meet the condition.

@Marnix
These are my proposed rules for your question. Please let me know within 12 hours if you would like to modify the rules.
Rules
§1- For this to resolve "Yes" the ban must remove transgender people from serving in the US military.

§2 - The ban does not need to cover civilian positions to count.

§3 - Court rulings or other future actions regarding the ban will not prevent this market from resolving "yes"

@AaronSimansky Not prohibiting - EJECTING. That is to say, transgender people currently serving in the military are ejected from service. A simple ban is too likely — one was implemented in 2019 and was overturned by the Biden administration. Actively removing all trans people currently serving would be a step up from that.

@Marnix I updated the rules based on your feedback. Please let me know if I have your approval.

@AaronSimansky I think that seems good enough to me! Though I think you may have dropped a word after "removes."

@Marnix actually, hang on. Now that I reread this, I think "An order removing transgender people who do not serve under their gender assigned at birth will not qualify" feels like it might kind of be antithetical to the question itself - did you mean "An order removing transgender people who serve under their gender assigned at birth"?

To be honest, I think that'd be a little antithetical to it too, though. I don't think it's too important to try and exclude anything that's like "don't ask don't tell" for trans people — don't ask don't tell was still a ban on gay people in the military!

@Marnix I think you're right. I eliminated two parts to address your concerns.

@AaronSimansky

Does this have to go into effect in the first 100 days? What if he signs a law ending taxes on tips effective Jan 1 2026?

@FoxKHTML it doesn't have to go into effect within the first 100 days as long as it has a definite date of going into effect and the date is before the next president is to take office (this last part is to ensure that it is clearly part of Trump's agenda and not part of anybody else's agenda)

@AaronSimansky this will resolve "yes" if within the first 100 days of Donald Trump's administration, a special counsel is appointed under the provisions of 28 C.F.R. § 600.1

@AaronSimansky The resolution condition is met if the United States officially withdraws from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) within the first 100 days of Donald Trump's presidency starting in 2025. Withdrawal is defined as the U.S. formally notifying NATO of its intent to exit the organization, in accordance with Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty, and ceasing to participate in NATO operations and obligations.

The resolution will rely on official government documentation and announcements, including:

• Official U.S. State Department communication to NATO.

• NATO's acknowledgment of the U.S. withdrawal.

• White House announcements.

• Congressional records (if legislation is involved).

The condition is met if:

• The U.S. formally submits a written notification to NATO of its intent to withdraw, as required by Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

• The U.S. ceases to participate in NATO activities, including military operations and strategic planning.

• Partial actions (e.g., reducing funding, withdrawing troops, or signaling an intent to leave without formal notification) do not satisfy the condition.

Temporary suspension of participation, threats to leave NATO, or delays in the withdrawal process beyond the 100-day timeframe do not meet the condition.

Reducing involvement, withholding funding, or limiting participation without formal withdrawal as defined by NATO's treaty terms does not meet the condition.

@AaronSimansky The resolution condition is met if the United States government officially and completely lifts all existing sanctions against Russia during Donald Trump's first 100 days. Sanctions include financial, trade, travel, military, and diplomatic restrictions imposed by executive order, legislation, or other official means.

The resolution will rely on official government documentation and announcements, including:

• The Federal Register (publication of sanctions removal).

• Official White House communications.

• U.S. Department of the Treasury (Office of Foreign Assets Control updates).

• Congressional records (if sanctions are repealed by legislation).

The condition is met if all U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia are officially removed and no new sanctions are imposed within three months.

• The condition is not met if any sanctions remain in place

• Lifting certain sanctions or categories of sanctions (e.g., on specific individuals or industries) does not meet the condition. The removal must encompass all sanctions on Russia.

• Temporary suspensions or waivers of sanctions do not meet the condition. The removal must be permanent or effective for the remainder of Trump's presidency.

@AaronSimansky The resolution condition is met if the United States government officially and completely stops providing all forms of military aid to Ukraine during Donald Trump's first 100 days. Military aid includes weapons, ammunition, defense equipment, training, intelligence support, or any other assistance directly intended for Ukraine's military operations.

The resolution will rely on official government statements, legislation, and budgetary documents, including:

• Acts of Congress.

• Defense Department budget allocations or reports.

• Official White House communications.

To satisfy the condition, the United States must entirely halt the provision of military aid to Ukraine for at least 30 consecutive days.

• Temporary pauses due to delays in delivery or administrative issues do not count unless explicitly stated as a complete cessation of aid.

• Non-military aid (e.g., humanitarian or economic aid) does not affect the resolution.

• Reductions in aid, pauses in specific programs, or conditional aid (e.g., tied to certain benchmarks) do not meet the condition.

@AaronSimansky Won’t happen until the TCJA expires at the end of 2025.

@traders I will also subsidize (i.e. compensate you for the cost of creating) any answers that are of very high-quality. Your high-quality answers need to be ones that would attract more traders and that have clear resolution criteria. Any very high-quality answer should be replied to this comment. Please keep in mind that for your market to be compensated by me. I will let you know before you add it. Please do not assume that I will compensate a market if I have not said so.

@traders I will subsidize (i.e. compensate you for the cost of adding the market) the first 10 to 15 good-quality answers. If you feel you have a good-quality answer, please reply to this comment with that answer, and if I think it is a good quality, I will subsidize it. A good quality answer for me has to include clear resolution criteria. Please keep in mind that for your market to be compensated by me. I will let you know before you add it. Please do not assume that I will compensate a market if I have not said so.

@AaronSimansky by subsidise, do you mean adding liquidity to the option, or do you mean paying us some or all of the mana we spent to add the option?

@TheAllMemeingEye by subsidize, I mean, I will add the answer for you and bear all of the costs related to that. Or in the alternative, you will add the answer and I will send you 100 mana as a subsidy so that you can get the bonuses. However, please note if you add the answer, please wait for confirmation from me that I will subsidize. Don't just expect that I will subsidize.

@AaronSimansky would any of the following be subsidisable if I added them?

• The US declares war against a UN recognised state

• The US leaves NATO

• The US ceases all military aid to Ukraine

• The US lifts all sanctions against Russia

• Trump uses presidential immunity to openly commit any crime

• The US applies sanctions to Israel

@TheAllMemeingEye I'll add these 3 myself if you are ok with it:

• The US ceases all military aid to Ukraine

• The US lifts all sanctions against Russia

• The US leaves NATO

@AaronSimansky ok 👍