
In 2030, will the majority of the top 10 blogs in Substack’s Politics category be written by humans?
12
1kṀ3892031
87%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the. Ambiguous cases will be determined by Scott Alexander's judgement. Blogs that Scott Alexander is unsure about won't be counted either way.
Related markets:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a widely read online blogger/author/opinion writer turns out to be an AI before 2030?
76% chance
Which blog posts will get more likes on my Substack in 2025?
How many Substack posts will I publish in 2025?
By 2026 will Substack generally be viewed in a similar way to medium.com
38% chance
Will my substack reach 100 subscribers by the end of 2025?
30% chance
Will Substack publications have at least 5 million paid subscribers by 2025?
31% chance
Will Substack cave to censorship demands before 2030?
49% chance
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
80% chance
Will AI generated content be ~50% or more of content creation on major social media platforms in 2025?
16% chance
Will Substack use LLMs to help you write posts???
35% chance