[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
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By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve positively if, in any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25% or more of the books that top that year's New York Times' Best Sellers list in the category of adult fiction were written by AI. For example, the NYT top Best Sellers of 2020 are listed here. If the NYT Best Sellers list is no longer available until 2050 or no longer ranks adult fiction books, Metaculus Admins may select a similar ranking of bestselling fiction, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.

To qualify as being written by AI, authorship of the book must be credited to an AI or more than 75% of the content must be created by AI, according to publisher's statements or credible media reports

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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