I failed to get to 30 in 2025 (https://manifold.markets/LuisPedroCoelho/will-i-publish-30-substacks-in-2025), but will give it a go in 2026.

I will bet 15,000 mana at 75% YES as soon I get the liquidity (in 2025, I bet 5,000 and will lose that).

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if I publish at least 30 unique Substack posts during the calendar year 2026 (January 1, 2026 - December 31, 2026).

A post counts if it is published on my personal Substack (https://luispedro.substack.com/), but not on any other venue.

The market will resolve NO if:

• Fewer than 30 posts are published during 2026

• I delete my Substack account before the end of 2026

• Posts are published but later deleted, bringing the total below 30

Considerations

• This requires an average of 2.5 posts per month