It doesn't have to be able to make tea in kitchens that don't have the needed equipment and ingredients, but it does have to be able to rummage through cabinets and drawers to find it, and to pour water, and to shuffle things around to make space, and to recover from ordinary disturbances.
If it happens after 2060, this question resolves to 2060.
Related questions
@JacobPfau I guess. It feels kind of weird to talk about the resolution criteria of prediction markets in the context of doom vs no-doom, because arguably they are always conditional on no-doom.
But I might as well make it explicit: betters, please bet as if this market will resolve N/A if doom happens before robots can go into near-arbitrary kitchens and make a cup of tea.
@MartinRandall Do you mean if e.g. most kitchens are reorganized to make it easier for robots to navigate, would that count? Or?
@tailcalled And easier for humans. Maybe in 2050 everyone has a voice activated beverage maker a la star trek.
@MartinRandall Hmm if everybody has a voice-activated beverage maker but it has something that's comparatively difficult to making tea (e.g. filling in the ingredients into compartments, connecting it to a power outlet, etc.), then the robot must be able to do that.
I should probably also specify criteria for the alternative cases where it doesn't have anything comparatively difficult. Like if it can get ingredients by itself, then it seems like the beverage maker would itself count as a positive resolution to it.