When will a robot assemble flat-pack furniture from printed instructions?
1
Ṁ675Ṁ1502035
October 25, 2028
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
19%
Jan 2026-Dec 2027
19%
Jan 2028-Dec 2029
19%
Jan 2030-Dec 2031
15%
Jan 2032-Dec 2033
15%
Jan 2034-Dec 2035
15%
>=2036
This resolves positive when a credible public video shows a robot autonomously assembling a standard flat-pack furniture item (e.g., an IKEA bookshelf with at least 20 parts) from printed instructions, without human physical intervention during assembly. Academic demos, company demos, and competition entries all count; simulation does not.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Robot assembles IKEA furniture using printed instructions, before 2030?
39% chance
Wil I be able to buy a robot that can assemble Ikea furniture reliably by the end of 2027?
10% chance
When will a humanoid robot be able to unbox a 5,000+ piece new Lego set, read the manual, and assemble the entire model?
2034
Will a robot be able to assemble LEGOs from a LEGO instruction set by EOY2026?
12% chance
When will a robot zero-shot assemble a 100+ piece Lego set?
When will the first robot be made that can go into a near-arbitrary kitchen and make a cup of tea?
2034
Will we be able to print a smart humanoid bot at home by 2030?
23% chance
Will I be able to purchase a robot that folds my laundry for me by the end of 2030?
81% chance
Will an AI be able to generate industrial grade CAD parts by a prompt or an annotated draft before 2027 ?
86% chance
By 2030, will an architectural firm design and construct a building based entirely on specifications generated by AI?
62% chance