an LLM as capable as GPT-4 will run on a 3090 before Sept 14th | Manifold Markets

closes Sep 15

an LLM as capable as GPT-4 will run on a 3090 before Sept 14th

18%

chance

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1W

1M

ALL

e.g. WinoGrande >= 87.5%

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Konstantine Sadov

Would offloading part of the model to CPU count satisfy the resolution criteria?

Hekis predicting YES at 35%

@cherrvak I assume "run on a 3090" means "run on a consumer PC with a single 3090 and a cpu, primarily using the gpu"

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an LLM as capable as GPT-4 will run on a 3090 before March 202432%

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In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?2024

Will any LLM have roughly GPT-3-level losses with a context window of at least 50,000 tokens before April of 2024?27%

Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)90%

In what year will a GPT3-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?2023

1) GPT-4 will be released in the next couple months—and yes, it will be a big deal.98%

Will I be able to use base GPT-4 at any time in 2023?34%

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an LLM as capable as GPT-4 will run on a 3090 before March 202432%

an LLM as capable as GPT-4 runs on one 3090 by March 202565%

Will a LLM considerably more powerful than GPT-4 come out in 2023?24%

In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?2024

Will any LLM have roughly GPT-3-level losses with a context window of at least 50,000 tokens before April of 2024?27%

Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)90%

In what year will a GPT3-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?2023

1) GPT-4 will be released in the next couple months—and yes, it will be a big deal.98%

Will I be able to use base GPT-4 at any time in 2023?34%