an LLM as capable as GPT-4 will run on a 3090 before Sept 14th
18%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
e.g. WinoGrande >= 87.5%
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Sylvie
an LLM as capable as GPT-4 will run on a 3090 before March 202432%
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an LLM as capable as GPT-4 runs on one 3090 by March 202565%

Bionic
Will a LLM considerably more powerful than GPT-4 come out in 2023?24%
Lars Doucet
In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?2024
Isaac King
Will any LLM have roughly GPT-3-level losses with a context window of at least 50,000 tokens before April of 2024?27%
Isaac King
Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)90%
Lars Doucet
In what year will a GPT3-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?2023

Matt C. Wilson
1) GPT-4 will be released in the next couple months—and yes, it will be a big deal.98%

Bionic
Will I be able to use base GPT-4 at any time in 2023?34%
Related markets
Sylvie
an LLM as capable as GPT-4 will run on a 3090 before March 202432%
Sylvie
an LLM as capable as GPT-4 runs on one 3090 by March 202565%

Bionic
Will a LLM considerably more powerful than GPT-4 come out in 2023?24%
Lars Doucet
In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?2024
Isaac King
Will any LLM have roughly GPT-3-level losses with a context window of at least 50,000 tokens before April of 2024?27%
Isaac King
Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)90%
Lars Doucet
In what year will a GPT3-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?2023

Matt C. Wilson
1) GPT-4 will be released in the next couple months—and yes, it will be a big deal.98%

Bionic
Will I be able to use base GPT-4 at any time in 2023?34%