Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
7
1kṀ1625
Dec 31
6%
China invades Taiwan first
15%
U.S. invades/acquires Greenland first
76%
Neither by close date
4%
Both at the same time (or tie/ambiguuous)

This market asks: Which happens first – a Chinese full-scale military invasion of Taiwan (main island or significant territory seizure) OR a U.S. military invasion/occupation of any part of Greenland OR formal U.S. acquisition/control transfer (purchase, annexation, etc.)?

- "Invade" for Taiwan: PLA launches amphibious/air assault to seize/control territory (blockades/gray-zone ops don't count unless they escalate to boots-on-ground occupation).

- "Invade/acquire" for Greenland: U.S. forces occupy territory OR binding agreement transfers sovereignty/control of any part (per related markets like "US acquires part of Greenland").

- "First" = earlier confirmed start date of qualifying action (via official statements, major news consensus like Reuters/AP/BBC, or gov announcements).

- If neither qualifies by close date → resolves to "Neither".

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy