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@strutheo should resolve

https://www.manifest.is/

teen bit of arb.

@strutheo looks like wrong close date?

Bet on whether the space will be alive here!

bullish? also
/saulmunn/will-manifest-2024-be-proximately-p

James bet no :(

@strutheo maybe he's planning another one for this year 😅

@Joshua should I just.make this one "another held in 2025" and avoid the number nonsense

@Joshua on the one hand, there are many reasons to expect there might not be a manifest in 2025 (timing, finances, lighthaven, etc), & james knows that as well as anyone.

OTOH, the golden rule is to inverse all bets made by manifold staff about the future of manifold, so this is a bullish signal imo

@strutheo people be trying out for genie law school or something

what if the 3rd manifest is held in 2024? (not trying to be too pedantic here, the last manifest was ~9 months ago so you could imagine them deciding it becomes an every 6-9 months thing)

na/ 50 percent idk

@strutheo I agree with @Ziddletwix, would be nice if you could clarify. I mean, just write it in the description, but your answer is pretty useless for traders and keep people (aka me 🙃) away from trading on your question.

@Lion added to description

@strutheo Thanks

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