Will Manifest 2024 be proximately profitable (including staff salaries)?
Jun 19


by "proximately profitable," i'm counting the obvious, clear, proximate revenues minus the obvious, clear, proximate costs. for example:

  • revenues: ticket sales, sponsorships, donations, lotteries, etc

  • costs: venue, food, travel, staff salaries, etc

further clarifications:

  • since we might sell tickets for mana (or buy things in mana?), i'll include mana in this count, at an M100 = $1 USD.

  • this count would include manifest summer camp.

  • this count explicitly excludes things like, e.g., finding a new hire for manifold, or the manifold dev team getting really high quality user feedback

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Are you including the various huge free gifts of mana distributed to guests? And hasn't the mana to usd exchange rate changed by 10x?


opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 95% order

Resolves yes

@nikki that count excludes staff salaries, which this market includes. i made a separate market on whether manifest 24 would be proximately profitable excluding staff salaries — see here.

my guess is that, including staff salaries, manifest was not profitable — but i'm not really sure, there are still a lot of accounting stuff we need to do.



Given the residual goals of the event it seems that if Manifest is profitable then Manifold probably should have spent more on it?

I'd be curious for an equivalent market that excludes staff salaries.

@SirSalty Simplest, cleanest way to do it would be yeah, just exclude staff salaries. You can always make a guess on how much time and salary would be needed to support a conference as an independent business unit for budgeting purposes.

@SirSalty done:

bought Ṁ1 YES

Looks fun. Was Manifest 2023 proximately profitable?

@benmanns yea, i'm excited! and no, it wasn't proximately profitable

bought Ṁ10 NO at 14%
bought Ṁ100 YES

This all depends upon how you account for the staff salaries. There is no reason why you couldn't force Manifest 2024 to be proximately profitable by your definition above. That being said, there is such a thing as, "labor," vs., "loaded labor," in accounting. Disentangling the accounting from your loaded costs is far too complex for the purposes of a one-off play money market, but I have dumped a hundo on YES right out the gate because I want to see you be aggressive and go for large sponsorships and have the conference do well. Basically I'm not going to be mad if I lose this money, but I think it's helpful for people to be able to discuss this publicly, I endorse what you are doing here, great idea turning it into a market.

Clarification question: is being profitable currently a goal? (I’m not gonna bet it’s gonna happen if you’re actively trying to avoid it)

@DaveK being profitable is a goal that we have, but def not the primary goal

happy to clarify further if ya want!

What is summer camp? (Edit: Oh it’s on the website cool)