Will a second Asian language novel win a Hugo award for Best Novel by EOY 2030?
Will a second Asian language novel win a Hugo award for Best Novel by EOY 2030?
14
1kṀ3052031
68%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The first was The Three-Body Problem by Cixin Liu (translated by Ken Liu) in 2015
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo_Award_for_Best_Novel
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Which novels will be *nominated* for a Hugo award in 2025
Which novellas will be *nominated* for a Hugo award in 2025
Will a completely AI-written novel win a Hugo Award by 2035?
15% chance
Will Sam Hughes (qntm) win a Hugo Award by end 2026
38% chance
Will George R. R. Martin ever win the Hugo Award for Best Novel?
28% chance
Will someone from FutureHouseSF win a Nobel prize by EOY 2037?
27% chance
Will there be an LLM which can do fluent conlang translations by EOY 2024?
72% chance
Will a book by Brandon Sanderson win a Goodreads Choice Award in 2025?
47% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
72% chance
Will a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?
34% chance