Will Esperanto be dethroned as the most widely spoken conlang by 2030?

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What do we think are candidates for conlangs that could potentially dethrone Esperanto?

@beepbooper2 I'm purely speculating here but possibly toki pona (due to extremely easy learning) or maybe a yet to be created Chinese government promoted auxlang?

@TheAllMemeingEye I have wondered before if you optimized a language for the additional skills it conveyed, then secondarly making it as easy to learn as possible, what it would look like? Tonal languages are thought to convey benefits, for example. https://tessais.org/extraordinary-benefits-of-mandarin-language-learning-for-children/


It does seem like people are losing interest in Esperanto.

Are there minimum requirements for what you count as a conlang?

@june I'm open to alternative requirements, but some possibilities could be:

  • Sufficient vocabulary for it to be possible to distinctly and clearly refer to each of the concepts that have a word in Toki Pona (since that is already designed to have the minimum vocabulary size possible), while sharing <50% of vocabulary with a single existing natural language.

  • Majority vote in Manifold poll that it is one.

  • Long-lasting Wikipedia entry prominently and unambiguously describing it as one.

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