Will a second Asian language novel win a Hugo award for Best Novel by EOY 2030?
14
1kṀ3552031
70%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The first was The Three-Body Problem by Cixin Liu (translated by Ken Liu) in 2015
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo_Award_for_Best_Novel
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will a completely AI-written novel win a Hugo Award by 2035?
15% chance
Will Sam Hughes (qntm) win a Hugo Award by end 2026
31% chance
Will George R. R. Martin ever win the Hugo Award for Best Novel?
28% chance
Will someone from FutureHouseSF win a Nobel prize by EOY 2037?
27% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
78% chance
Will a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?
34% chance
Will Esperanto be dethroned as the most widely spoken conlang by 2030?
28% chance
Will an AI-generated script win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay by 2030?
5% chance
Will there be a sequel to Doki Doki Literature Club before EOY 2030?
38% chance
Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
58% chance