Will Sam Hughes (qntm) win a Hugo Award by end 2026
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32
αΉ€130
2027
41%
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Will qntm, a.k.a. Sam Hughes, win a Hugo award in any category by the end of 2026.

Winning associated awards, such as The Lodestar Award or The Astounding Award will not resolve this market YES; a Worldcon special award will not resolve this YES; winning an 'extra' Hugo Award (a one-off award that does not fall into one of the regular categories) would resolve this market YES.

More info on the Hugos here:

https://www.thehugoawards.org/hugo-faq/

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bought αΉ€1 of YES

Description says this year, title says 2026. Regardless, do you mean award must be announced before the close date?

predicts YES

@Eliza For example, if the award from the last year of the market was delayed for some reason, would it extend the deadline.

@Eliza sorry, I missed this comment until now. I believe I wanted this to be about 2026 which is the end date + title, but didn't update the body text. plus, betting that a specific person will win an award that year is too unlikely. Sound good? Will update

predicts YES

@Ernie How about if there was an adaptation (likely for the screen) based on his work?

@Eliza If it won, it certainly seems worth considering. I'm not sure how it works really. Like if a movie wins a Hugo is the director or writer or actor or X Considered to have won a Hugo? Normally, no. But it also feels very cruel if that happened yet we NO here

Is there a possibility of it?

predicts YES

@Ernie I think anything can happen -- 2026 seems like a short timeframe to get a film or TV adaptation but it'd be better to know the answer to this before it happens. I bought 1 mana of Yes in October so you could say I'm biased, but I'd say the question would be more satisfying if it counted an adaptation of his work in addition to his own works directly.