@strutheo Resolves to NO

https://x.com/buccocapital/status/1853056642822156443

bump

2 weeks

Her odds are increasing

That means "trump wins pa" is decreasing

state odds for Trump are pretty far below Nate Silver’s model

[NVM, I assume you just mean Trump's prob of winni9ng AZ according to this market]

Make this a prize market stat!

I wanted to check if Meme Nancy had her electoral college math straight. If Trump flips PA and AZ but the map otherwise remains the same, Dems win 273-265.

@strutheo ehat does kamala at the convention mean here? Just that she’s the nominee? Or does her being nominated before the convention via virtual roll call not count

I assume it would mean she wins it because she can't win popular or electoral otherwise ?

oh yeah it def requires her to be the nominee. i just mean "at the convention" could refer to:

/BobJones/will-kamala-harris-be-nominated-via

or

/MarketManagerBot/will-kamala-harris-be-the-democrati

(i.e. she def needs to be the nominee for that to resolve YES. but does she need to be made the nominee "at the convention", or would the first market resolving YES be enough)

I think i'd count either but thinking ....

can @mods na the first biden one i marked done ty

gotchu