Will BuccoCapital's six way parlay bet Pelosi meme actually resolve YES?
➕
Plus
77
Ṁ150k
resolved Nov 6
Resolved
NO

“six way parlay. i want Biden step down on Sunday. i want Kamala at the convention. I want trump pennsylvania and arizona, kamala electoral, kamala popular. read it back to me”

https://x.com/buccocapital/status/1814082904362012980

Will resolve YES if

  • biden drops out on sunday (DONE)

  • kamala wins the convention (DONE)

  • trump wins pa

  • trump wins az

  • kamala wins electoral vote

  • kamala wins popular vote

Market for each individually: /strutheo/which-of-the-bets-in-buccocapitals

Get
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bought Ṁ2,535 NO
reposted

2 weeks

four more left!
trump wins pa

trump wins az

kamala wins electoral vote

kamala wins popular vote

Did Nancy lobby Shapiro off the ticket so her parlay has a better shot?

bought Ṁ350 NO

this is a great mean but just the two legs:

  • trump wins pa

  • kamala wins electoral vote

are very very unlikely. nancy likes her long shot bets

Nate Silver thinks Trump is 97% to win the election if he wins PA. I assume he loses AZ in a high proportion of the 3%.

My calculation goes something like this:

99% Kamala wins convention

50% Trump wins PA over Kamala

3% Kamala wins electoral vote given the above

20% Trump wins AZ given the above

99% Kamala wins popular vote given the above

=0.3% the parlay hits. Market is WAY too high

Upon further reflection, the 3% and 20% should both be about double that. Still only 1.2%

reposted

I'm trying to be more liquid. Come take my limit. It's a great deal!

bought Ṁ1,500 NO

I think I cleared those Altho no

More now I’m broke

I'm trying to be more liquid. Come take my limit. It's a great deal!

bought Ṁ47 NO

"Trump wins PA" and "Kamala wins electoral vote" are pretty much mutually exclusive

bought Ṁ500 NO

this kid needs to understand correlations

This guy just fell outta the coconut tree

reposted

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