In what year will 70 million human deaths happen? | Manifold

In what year will 70 million human deaths happen?

6

225Ṁ287

2026

2033.8

expected

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

2%

Before 2028

11%

2028 - 2029

12%

2030 - 2031

18%

2032 - 2033

29%

2034 - 2035

15%

2036 - 2037

10%

2038 - 2040

3%

2041 or later

our current estimate is that 69.7m died during covid, which was the closest we've reached to 70 million deaths in a year

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-deaths-per-year

Update 2025-10-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve to the first year in which 70 million human deaths occur. Only one answer can resolve YES - the earliest year meeting this threshold.

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opened a Ṁ20 NO at 78% order

I assume you mean "for the first time"

If >70 Mi happen in 2035 and 2036, how will you resolve:
A) 2035 as YES, all others NO --> "for the first time" assumption
B) 2035, 2036 and any other with >70 as YES --> "years with >70" assumption

@MiguelLM the market is dependent, only one answer can resolve YES

@zsig good point! Thanks. The answer is clear now.

It didn't occur to me that I could find out by checking the market rate

first one yeah

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+4% 1d82% chance

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Related questions

Will there be over 100,000 global malaria deaths in [each of 2028..2034]?

By 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?

By what year will there be more human alive than humans dead?

Will there be 100 million famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032?

In what year will the next pandemic occur that is as bad or worse than COVID?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?

Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?

Will at least 800 million people die worldwide between 2024 and 2030?

By the start of 2033, will at least a billion people be alive?

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

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