πŸ—“οΈ2025 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (19 DONE)
30
10kαΉ€14k
2026
20%
the first Solar eclipse of the year
22%
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
31%
south korean president removed from power
31%
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
32%
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
33%
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
39%
Chat GPT 5 releases to the general userbase
40%
Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape
41%
English Wikipedia reaches 7M ARTICLES or more
41%
trump removes a cabinet member
41%
Mr Beast hits 400M Youtube Subscribers
41%
Last day of the NFL draft
43%
windows 12 announcement is made
43%
28 years Later releases in USA
43%
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season
44%
Manifest 2025 starts
45%
Llama 4 released to the general userbase
45%
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
45%
claude 4 sonnet releases (or later version)
45%
First Apple Event of the year

README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:

  • 1st event: 1% (happens soonest)

  • 2nd event: 2% (happens next)

    ...

  • 100th event: 100% (happens latest)


Any events that do not happen by EOY will be resolved 100% YES.

  • Update 2025-03-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of ceasefire:

    • Any ceasefire qualifies, including those limited to infrastructure and energy.

    • This means no matter the focus, if a ceasefire is announced it is counted.

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bought αΉ€20 NO
bought αΉ€50 NO

Trump declared military action against yemen... resolve pls

@strutheo It says any ceasefire. Does an infrastructure and energy ceasefire count?

i guess so, i said any

@strutheo

Seems like Russia and Ukraine have both agreed and announced it.


https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-hold-call-with-putin-test-deal-making-strength-2025-03-18/

Putin ordered the Russian military to stop attacks against energy sites after speaking with Trump, the Kremlin said.

...

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his country would support the proposal to stop strikes on energy facilities and infrastructure for 30 days.

bought αΉ€40 NO

@strutheo
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y2nvezdnwo
Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea in separate deals with the US, after three days of peace talks in Saudi Arabia.

Washington said all parties would continue working toward a "durable and lasting peace" in statements announcing the agreements, which would reopen an important trade route.

bought αΉ€5 NO

@strutheo happy March 16th folks!

New tariffs beginning of 4 March is before EOD Mardi Gras

Hmm Resolved tariff one but not the Mardi Gras one?

@strutheo 16e Released 28 Feb

bought αΉ€17 NO

@strutheo
24 F9 launches with IM-2 launch a few minutes ago
1 (failed) starship launch

@strutheo
"reportedly start filming this summer ahead of a reported release date of December 2026."
Seems rather vague and not officially announced?
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/dune-3-messiah-movie-release-date-b2701380.html

But if there is lots of information and timeline for filming and release, is there a risk that it is never officially announced? Guess there still has to be some official confirmation?

Grok 3 is currently available exclusively to X Premium Plus subscribers.
@strutheo

@strutheo Why is grok 3 resolved at 1%? Shouldn't it be 9%?

@ChristopherRandles oops yes... Sorry I was on mobile can you fix @mods . Also can we change it so I can unresolve stuff longer than an hour ago

@strutheo although Feb 13 passed it has definitely NOT been fat tuesday / mardi gras. Not sure which takes precedence

@TotalVerb mardi gras isn't until March 4

@TotalVerb oops thanks can @mods unresolved Mardi gras

@strutheo Done.

@strutheo been unresolved. So change title to 8 done?

What tariffs has Trumo enacted on Mexico? He has only threatened to do so

@strutheo @mods can unresolve mexico thanks

@strutheo https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgj20g19z2qo
When does 'mass' quantities start?

Also re
trump enacts new or changed tariffs on mexico
Does it have to be specifically on Mexico. i.e. Would increased steel/alunminium tariff on everywhere outside USA count?

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