README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:
1st event: 1% (happens soonest)
2nd event: 2% (happens next)
...
100th event: 100% (happens latest)
Any events that do not happen by EOY will be resolved 100% YES.
Update 2025-03-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of ceasefire:
Any ceasefire qualifies, including those limited to infrastructure and energy.
This means no matter the focus, if a ceasefire is announced it is counted.
Update 2025-04-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Partial Release Inclusion:
For the event "Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video," the release qualifies even if not all parts are released.
Update 2025-08-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Skate 4: This refers to the end-of-summer release, even if it is labeled early access. It resolves when early access goes live (not waiting for a full release).
1,000People are also trading
@strutheo
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/dune-3-denis-villeneuve-timothee-chalamet-release-date-b2785266.html
9 July 2025
Now got an "official title" and 18 Dec 2026 release date. Still think we will get a more official announcement?
@strutheo
https://www.gamespot.com/articles/skate-release-times-revealed-for-early-access-launch/1100-6534740/
Skate global release times
September 16
10 AM PT
The new Skate is a free-to-play, always-online game, supported by microtransactions. Because it's launching in early access, it's not the full experience or necessarily totally balanced. Full Circle said it will embrace fan feedback to shape the game going forward, and add things like new game modes, tricks, leaderboards, party voice chat, and other improvements over time.
Is this enough to resolve all your Skate 4 questions?
GPT-5 released Aug 7 can resolve at 46
SpaceX 100 launches 97 Falcon 9 3 Starship reach Aug 11th can resolve at 47
@strutheo
@strutheo 8.8 magnitude earthquake in Russia https://earthquaketrack.com/quakes/2025-07-29-23-24-50-utc-8-8-20
@strutheo
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP1+shtml/010310.shtml?
Hurricane Flossie is 3rd pacific hurricane June 30th
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/ep05/ep052025.public_a.007.shtml
600 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
...ERICK NOW A HURRICANE...
second pacific hurricane
@strutheo
Chime IPO June 12
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/chime-set-long-awaited-market-debut-after-864-million-us-ipo-2025-06-12/
second pacific hurricane June 18th per above
28 years later June 20th
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spider-Man:_Beyond_the_Spider-Verse
release date was apparently announced in March 2025.
oops sorry missed that one
@strutheo
Manifest ends June 8
First pacific hurricane June 9th 15:00 UTC https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/ep02/ep022025.discus.006.shtml
Apple event is this start time or end time or Keynote speech start or end time? I think all of those are after first Pacific hurricane.
@strutheo Your welcome.
Now reached 72 Falcon 9 and 3 starship makes 75
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#2025 says
71 but there is one launch that has happened that is currently still in future section
1:54 UTC on 13th
MrBeast 1 June 2025
Manifest starts 6 June 2025