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MANIFOLD
Will the Winds of Winter be good?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ256
2030
53%
Positive
46%
Negative
1.5%
Other

Will I think the general feedback surrounding the Winds of Winter will be positive or negative? Obviously, it's subjective, but with such a massive anticipation, I think it's possible there will be an overwhelming obvious positive or negative reaction. I'll try to evaluate the feedback on the contents of the book itself, not, e.g., relief or frustration over the wait time. Also, let me know if there is any smarter way to operationalize this.

  • Update 2026-09-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator will extend the market indefinitely until the book is released.

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Your 2030 market close date is... optimistic :)

@BenTensor yeah😢, my biggest position on this site is in fact a bet that TWOW will not come out by the end of 2030. /jack/will-the-next-book-of-a-song-of-ice But as for this market, I will extend it indefinitely until the book is released