If the US clearly has territorial sovereignty, whether de facto or de jure, over the entirety of the island of Greenland sometime before January 1, 2027, this market resolves YES, otherwise this market resolves NO on 1/1/27.

If the US enters into a Compact of Free Association with Greenland, Greenland is administered under an independent Greenlandic administration, Greenland is administered by both the US and Denmark, the US gains mineral/exploration rights but not political control, or if only a part of Greenland is subject to the US (ex. Pituffik Space Base right now, future military bases), this market resolves NO.

If Greenland is administered as a semi-autonomous region but can still be ultimately subject to the US federal government, ex. US tribal lands, this market resolves YES. If the US temporarily leases the entire island of Greenland and has control over the island and its affairs sometime before 2026, this market still resolves YES even if that control expired.

Background

The United States has previously expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, most notably in 1946 and 2019. Currently, Greenland is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, with Denmark maintaining control over foreign affairs and defense policy. The U.S. maintains a military presence at Thule Air Base (Pituffik Space Base) through agreements with Denmark.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if:

• The U.S. gains clear territorial sovereignty (de facto or de jure) over the entire island of Greenland before January 1, 2027

• Greenland becomes administered as a semi-autonomous region subject to U.S. federal authority (similar to U.S. tribal lands)

• The U.S. temporarily leases and controls the entire island and its affairs at any point before 2027 (even if control expires before resolution)

This market resolves NO if:

• Greenland enters into a Compact of Free Association with the U.S.

• Greenland is administered independently or jointly by the U.S. and Denmark

• The U.S. only controls part of Greenland (e.g., current Pituffik Space Base arrangement)

• No change in territorial sovereignty occurs before January 1, 2027

Considerations

Both Greenland's Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen have explicitly rejected the idea of selling Greenland to the United States. Any change in sovereignty would require consent from both the Greenlandic people and the Danish government. Greenland has been moving toward greater autonomy since gaining home rule in 1979 and self-government in 2009.

I will not bet on this market.