Status of Greenland in 2035?
95
1kṀ16k
2035
63%
Territory of Denmark
10%
Independent country
20%
United States territory
8%
Other

Resolves to the political status of Greenland on 1 January 2035

  • If Denmark remains within the Danish Realm, including the status quo, then the resolution will be "Territory of Denmark"

  • If Greenland becomes a US state, then the resolution will be "United States territory."

  • Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on de jure (legal) status, not de facto (actual) status.

  • Update 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Greenland is divided between Denmark and the US, the market will resolve to Other.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

What if it's divided into two parts, one part of Denmark, and one part of the US?

De facto status?

@jks De jure status

@thepurplebull Thanks. De jure by your judgment or by UN or someone else?

@jks At any rate, I’ll judge what the international community has to say. My concern with using a “de facto” basis is that it would make things murky if the market were to resolve in the middle of a conflict. If there is a change to the status quo of Greenland, and that change doesn’t conflict with international law, that should be the new de jure status automatically.

bought Ṁ275 NO

Let's be serious, Greenland wouldn't last a year as an independent country

bought Ṁ50 YES

I don't think that US just outright invading Greenland can be ruled out as negotiation posturing.

@IdkIdc Seems like a good opportunity for a new market

Does US territory include becoming a full US state or just overseas territory like Guam or PR?

@ShakedKoplewitz I did not include US state because Greenland in its current form would likely need to double its population to even be considered. But if it did happen, it would resolve United States territory.

Would Denmark need to be a sovereign entity for this to resolve as "Territory of Denmark"? For example, if Denmark were to become part of a federalized EU (or of the US or some other country, whatever), how would this resolve?

Does stats quo resolve territory of denmark?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen If Denmark is within the Danish Realm including the status quo then yes

bought Ṁ50 YES

@thepurplebull do we need to wait until 2035?

The referendum and so on must be prepared. If no referendum preparations until 2032, might resolve Denmark

@DerkachMichael I will absolutely wait until 2035 to resolve.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy