Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES for any country that acquires sovereign territory or economic rights within Greenland during 2026. Acquisition includes:

• Sovereign territory transfer: Any formal change in territorial control or sovereignty over any part of Greenland

• Economic rights: Exclusive or preferential access to natural resources (minerals, oil, gas, fisheries), trade agreements granting special economic privileges, or formal economic zones under foreign control, for a minimum of 30 years.

Resolution sources:

• Official statements from the Danish government, Greenlandic government, or relevant foreign governments

• International treaties or agreements registered with the UN

• Announcements from the governments involved

• Major news reports from credible international outlets

Each market resolves NO if that country does not acquire such rights by December 31, 2026.

What would and wouldn’t count:

Would count

• Establishment of a sovereign territory, practically subordinate to a nation on the list, within the current extents of Greenland with similar governance and independence as Gibraltar, UK bases in Cyprus, etc.

• Military bases explicitly and clearly given as territory of the nation in perpetuity

• Setups similar to Guantanamo bay, where in practical terms there is no possible way for the country’s rights to be removed without the consent of the country who possesses the rights.

Would not count

• Embassies

• Military bases unless the land the military base is situated on is explicitly given to the country whose base it is in full.

• Any kind of rights to use land that is not meaningfully distinct from private ownership of land within Greenland, particularly that it is still beholden to Greenlandic or Danish local regulations

Background

As of January 2026, the White House acknowledged that discussions over how to acquire Greenland, including through diplomatic transactions, are active in the Oval Office, and stressed that the use of the U.S. military "is always an option." In the 1951 Defense of Greenland Agreement with Denmark, the US unambiguously recognizes 'the sovereignty of the Kingdom of Denmark' over Greenland.

Since 2009, Greenland has been largely self-governing, and has the right to pursue independence at a time of its choosing. Independence is the wish of all its political parties. Greenland occupies a strategic geopolitical position, sitting between the US and Europe and astride the so-called GIUK gap – a maritime passage between Greenland, Iceland, and the UK that links the Arctic to the Atlantic Ocean. It's also home to rich deposits of natural resources, including oil, gas and rare earth minerals.

Considerations

No pathway to acquiring Greenland works without multiple consents. Article 1 of the UN Charter on self-determination would prohibit the transfer of Greenland without Greenland's consent, a rule that Denmark is bound by. Danish and Greenlandic officials have said consistently that Greenland is not for sale.