Will Nicolás Maduro still be president on the March equinox in 2026?

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Mar 19

chance

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The March equinox in 2026 falls on March 20 at 14:46 UTC.

I will mainly follow the Wikipedia page of Nicolás Maduro, English version.

The question could be resolved to NO earlier if I become convinced that he has lost control of the presidency, even temporarily, before that time.

In case of doubts the question could resolve to N/A or YES (with high probability if he is still listed as incumbent president in the days following the equinox).

Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Maduro ceases to be the de jure president (not just de facto), the market will resolve NO. The creator is currently waiting to resolve because of the remote possibility that Maduro could be released, return to Venezuela, and resume his presidency in a manner indistinguishable from temporary incapacitation.

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I would like clarification on how this resolves if Maduro is still in custody but the Wikipedia page still lists them as president.

@Elspeth If Maduro is still in custody on the March equinox, the question resolves to NO, regardless of Wikipedia's mention. I will probably resolve the question to NO before March, as he has already de facto lost control of the presidency.

@sortwie she's been formally sworn in by the Assembly. does this early NO resolution hang on her being "interim" or "acting" while Maduro may still be de jure President, at least for a few more weeks or months as allowed by the constitution? https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/delcy-rodriguez-sworn-in-as-venezuela-s-interim-president-255418949792

@deagol Yes. If Maduro ceases to be the de jure president, the question resolves to NO. I am waiting because of the very remote possibility that he is released in the next few weeks, returns to Venezuela, and everything resumes in a manner arguably indistinguishable from the alternate reality in which he was not apprehended but only temporarily incapacitated.

@sortwie So will this market resolve as NO if any of following outcomes happen: Maduro remains in custody, or Maduro ceases to be de jure President, or the wikipedia page gets changed so that he's no longer listed as President, by the March 2026 equinox - is that correct?