Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, there is clear, verifiable evidence from official sources (such as the Turkish Ministry of National Defense, the Israeli Ministry of Defense, the United Nations, or major reputable international news agencies citing official statements) confirming that Turkish military troops are officially and openly stationed within the Gaza Strip for any purpose, including humanitarian aid delivery or recovery of deceased hostages, for a period of more than 2 months starting any day in 2025 (this period can end in 2026).

The market will resolve to "No" if no such deployment is officially confirmed by the resolution date.

Background

Turkey has long maintained a strong stance regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, often expressing solidarity with Palestinians and criticizing Israeli actions in Gaza. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has indicated Turkey's readiness to contribute to post-war efforts in Gaza, emphasizing Palestinian governance. In recent negotiations concerning a ceasefire and the future of Gaza, Hamas reportedly requested the deployment of Turkish troops to secure a ceasefire. However, U.S. officials have stated that Israel opposes the presence of Turkish troops in Gaza.

As of October 9, 2025, Turkey is set to participate in a joint task force with Israel, the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, specifically to locate the bodies of deceased Israeli hostages in Gaza.

Considerations

The deployment of Turkish troops to Gaza for a sustained, active "stationed" role would represent a significant geopolitical development. Turkey already maintains military presences in several countries including Iraq, Syria, Somalia, and Libya. However, a substantial deployment to Gaza would entail considerable logistical challenges and likely face strong opposition from Israel, and it is probably uncomfortable to other countries in the area as well, like Egypt and the Palestinian Authority.