
Will the world develop a bigger bomb by 2100?
25
166Ṁ7772100
32%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Nuclear, antimatter, strange matter, whatever the mechanism - will humans come together and develop a bomb with yield at least 10 times greater than the most powerful thermonuclear weapon developed so far?
Tsar Bomba had yield of 50 megatonnes, so a positive resolution requires a weapon releasing at least 500 Mt.
Must be a single bomb, an aggregate of smaller warheads does not count;
The bomb itself must release the energy, to exclude e.g. asteroid redirection or inducing earthquakes

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an explosive at least one thousand times more powerful than the Tsar Bomba be developed before 2040?
12% chance
Will a pure nuclear fusion bomb be developed before 2100?
37% chance
Will Tsar Bomba be upstaged by 2100?
25% chance
Will an offensive nuclear detonation occur by 2080?
49% chance
Will a nuclear bomb be detonated in space by 2050?
67% chance
Will a dirty bomb be used by 2030?
20% chance
Will there be a nuclear war before 2100?
35% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
19% chance
Will there be a nuclear strike on a civilian or military target by 2030?
26% chance
Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?
19% chance