Will an explosive at least one thousand times more powerful than the Tsar Bomba be developed before 2040?
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2040
14%
chance

The Tsar Bomba, detonated by the Soviet Union in 1961, remains the most powerful nuclear weapon ever tested, with an estimated yield of 50 megatons of TNT equivalent. The development of an explosive at least one thousand times more powerful than the Tsar Bomba (with an equivalent yield of at least 50 gigatons of TNT) would represent a significant leap in destructive potential and could have far-reaching geopolitical and environmental implications.

Resolution criteria:

This question will resolve to "YES" if, before January 1st 2040, an explosive is publicly and credibly documented to have:

  1. Demonstrated a yield of at least 50 gigatons of TNT equivalent in a test or simulation.

  2. Been developed by a recognized government, research group, institution, or company with the capability to produce such an explosive.

A successful demonstration must be accompanied by:

  1. A publicly accessible report or documentation describing the explosive, its design, materials used, and performance in terms of the criteria outlined above.

  2. Independent validation of the results by at least two separate entities with expertise in explosives, nuclear physics, or related fields. These entities can be research groups, institutions, or companies.

  3. Telemetry data, video, photographic evidence, or computer simulation data of the explosive achieving the yield of at least 50 gigatons of TNT equivalent, as well as any available analytical data supporting the claims.

I will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with experts.

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Is there a specific criterion for "credible" documentation? Like, is there a specific credence that experts need to have?

What if someone is able to make 1,000 Tsar Bombas, place them close together and detonate them simultaneously?