If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year? | Manifold

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?

11

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2124

71%

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1W

1M

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Wikipedia article for the Carrington Event

For the sake of the question, "another Carrington Event" is defined as a storm with a Dst of -1000 nT hitting the Earth.

This market won't resolve unless the event in question actually occurs. The word "tomorrow" should be interpreted relative to when you are reading this, rather than relative to when the market was begun.

See also: /singer/if-another-carrington-event-occurre-taf44snmty

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I'll admit I can't add much of predictive value at the moment, but I hugely appreciate you making so many useful markets about this super important issue, and within the next year or so as part of my studies I expect to read up a bunch on this topic and return with actually useful credences lol

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Related questions

Will I still be active on Manifold a year after the Great Pivot?

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

Will Manifold still be around in 2035? (resolves N/A at the end of 2026)

Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?

Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)

At the end of 2025, will Manifold think things have changed for the worse for us as a society?

Will the described dynamic mostly stop happening on Manifold by the end of 2024?

Will any Manifold users be discovered to be in cawhoots before the end of 2030?

Who will own Manifold at the end of 2024?

Will any Manifold markets created in 2023 be resolved in 2050 by the original author?

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