If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year? | Manifold

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?

️ Technology Natural Disasters Existential Risk

Basic

11

Ṁ918

2124

71%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Wikipedia article for the Carrington Event

For the sake of the question, "another Carrington Event" is defined as a storm with a Dst of -1000 nT hitting the Earth.

This market won't resolve unless the event in question actually occurs. The word "tomorrow" should be interpreted relative to when you are reading this, rather than relative to when the market was begun.

See also: /singer/if-another-carrington-event-occurre-taf44snmty

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

Sort by:

I'll admit I can't add much of predictive value at the moment, but I hugely appreciate you making so many useful markets about this super important issue, and within the next year or so as part of my studies I expect to read up a bunch on this topic and return with actually useful credences lol

Related questions

Will there be a bank run on Manifold before 2028?

-6% 1d36% chance

Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)

Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?

Will there be a day in 2024 with 1,000 questions created on Manifold?

Will I still be using Manifold by September 2025?

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?

Will a Manifold user be convicted of murder by 2030?

Will any Manifold markets created in 2023 be resolved in 2050 by the original author?

Will the described dynamic mostly stop happening on Manifold by the end of 2024?

Related questions

Will there be a bank run on Manifold before 2028?

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)

Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?

Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?

Will a Manifold user be convicted of murder by 2030?

Will there be a day in 2024 with 1,000 questions created on Manifold?

Will any Manifold markets created in 2023 be resolved in 2050 by the original author?

Will I still be using Manifold by September 2025?

Will the described dynamic mostly stop happening on Manifold by the end of 2024?