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Nothing explicitly prevents convicted felons from running for president

If it was by the end of 2024 I would bet it up to 90

@BTE Here you go.

Quite a long way to 90%.

Another 2024 market that would resolve immediately on disqualification.

So this resolves YES the moment the espionage act charges come back guilty I assume? Since that is the law today and would need to be appealed after the conviction.

@BTE It should have to wait for the appeal process to finish, since that’s the actually relevant question.

@Gabrielle No way. Not as written it does not.

@Gabrielle That just isn’t how the law works. The appeals court doesn’t even have to hear a challenge if they don’t want to. Most of the time they don’t actually.

@Gabrielle You can’t assume there will even be a relevant appeal taken up is my point. That needs to be a separate market because it’s not automatic necessarily. Trump has already blown his legal load on this case to use a crude phrase. Appeals to get on the ballot from prison do not get heard in the Supreme Court my man. That will be the end of the court’s legitimacy permanently. Legitimacy still requires norms to be maintained and federal and maybe also state convicts cannot be president because of norms not laws.

@Gabrielle Think hard about how relieved the court will be NOT to have to deal with Trump ever again!!! They will not voluntarily put a loser on the ticket to replace a potential winner. The GOP does not believe in fairness, which is what your argument is based on, nor do they believe in purposefully losing, another strong pillar of your argument. Think about it from a norm’s perspective and not a legal one.

@Gabrielle I do not see the word “appeal” anywhere in the question or description. I think you are biased in how you are approaching these markets and it would be good to recalibrate and remember the law is not going to protect Donald Trump any more, it’s going to destroy him. Just like everyone else indicted on this scale in America.

@BTE Wanna make a market on whether an appeal happens? I’ll bet you at 90% odds that, assuming he is convicted and initially banned, it will be heard by an appeals court. I’d also bet at 80% that he’ll be let run if the appeals case gets to the Supreme Court.

I think that the norms are much stronger in favor of protecting a former president than the edges of a law from the civil war era.

But why would they purposely cause the GOP to lose just to make Trump look good? Do you think the Supreme Court justices believe in defunding the FBI or that the DoJ is biased against anyone other than criminals?!? Of course not. The DOJ is respected by every judge and trump is promised to obliterate it. Like what are you smoking dude, you make less than zero sense. Are you in the US?

@Gabrielle Dude, you need to read about Nixon. Much of what Trump has been arguing was already decided by the Supreme Court back then. That is why Nixon resigned. You are arguing for a technicality that you think gives them power to reinstate and you are completely ignoring the fact that everyone you are taking about WANTS HIM TO GO AWAY FOREVER. He is NOT good for the Supreme Court’s brand anymore. They don’t need him to do anything for them. He needs them. In fact, as I keep trying to explain, Trump being the nominee would be a THREAT TO THE SUPRAMAJORITY not a defense of it. Think about it for a minute. How does him losing to a democrat help the GOP from a judicial appointee perspective exactly?? Unless you are arguing he will win which tou don’t appear to have done yet.

@BTE It may surprise you, but lots of people really do think that Trump has better odds of winning against Biden than DeSantis does. I’m unsure personally, but I think that others, including Supreme Court Justices, do think so. Moreover, I think that the court will want to be seen as not interfering in the election and that they will be seen as personally blocking him from running, even if it’s because the appeal doesn’t get to then.

DeSantis isn’t such a pro-norms pro-DoJ candidate either, even if he’s a bit less of a buffoon. His actions in Florida have seemed pretty chaotic to rule of law, like tearing up long standing contracts and conventions to get back at political opponents.

@Gabrielle One candidate is only running to stay out of jail and get revenge, Trump. The other candidates are running to be president. If that isn’t totally obvious to you by now tell me about how much work Trump did following the election in 2020?? None whatsoever. Is he even making arguments other than “I am a victim, I am a victim, you might be too!” No he is not. Anyone who thinks that wins the White House must have been on a respirator from severe Covid when he lost and threw a temper tantrum for the last 3 years. They just want the drama, they can’t defend him as a serious person anymore.

@Gabrielle This was my point exactly. SCOTUS has a conservative majority, they'll let him run, especially since the precedent is unclear. They won't risk invoking the 14th amendment, the scale of riots if that happened would be insanity.

And, exactly what part of the Espionage act bans him from public office? I can't find any evidence of that. Also you (BTE) whining about Trump's rhetoric or what arguments he makes is irrelevant to Republican voters. I don't think he makes any sense either, but he's still matching/beating Biden in the polls.

@ShadowyZephyr You still haven’t started to explain why it benefits the court in any way to back trump on any motion he brings before them, regarding this or any other matter. He offers them nothing. Please address why they care other than being actual conservatives who are smart enough to know Trump is not a conservative by any definition of the word. He was a convenient vehicle for getting on the court and they now hold substantially more power than ever and especially more than a 79 time indicted criminal defendant. They owe him nothing. I am arguing clearly that Trump is actually a threat to the courts legitimacy. You think Trump being convicted of a crime and then not like to run for president is going to cause bigger riots than the Supreme Court basically overturning his conviction to allow him to try to be president maybe which won’t happen followed by another interaction and the riots will be bigger because they don’t let Trump run??? my dudes you make zero sense other than you know what a Republican is, and you know that they have guns. You also seem to have forgotten how many of them are going to jail for the last time, the rioting, and how few of them actually zero got off in court for what they did last time. Three dudes in Bloomington, IN were arrested for January 6th this last week and there will continue to be arrests for YEARS TO COME. WTF do you think the Supreme Court doesn’t give a shit about Law and order particularly criminal law and order.????

Political science is the only thing I have formal education in, and one thing you need to keep in mind always is that when a person is president they are no longer a person they are an office/institution until they aren’t and they are treated differently while president purposely. The president can’t be forced to sit for a deposition in any case, or be a witness or be charged for anything they do as president, total and absolute immunity (except while campaigning but that is for another time). All that completely evaporates at the stroke of noon on January 21 and you become mere mortal citizen again. The simple fact that Trump humiliated the country and obviously violated his oath flagrantly in retrospect by cherry-picking the most sensitive national security documents is not immaterial to conservatives that are actually principled. You all seem to think the only principle that matters is party and that’s just not true it’s ideology that matters. Kavanaugh Barrett Gorsuch are a block that think they are morally superior zero chance. They forgive and forget the greatest embarrassment in American history just to see what the asshole might do next for them. it’s not transactional for most of them just for Trump and associates. The reason these people think they can overturn abortion rights is because they think they’re morally endowed with the power to do that, and that supersedes any political consideration. Precedent matters in an appeals court they don’t give a shit who the person is sitting in front of them. Their job is to uphold a history of common law and to decide matters that are novel. If they go down the road of facilitating Donald Trump‘s rebellion from federal block up to self pardon to obliteration of the judiciary, the department of justice, the federal system that’s not gonna be good for their long-term job security. The people who get picked for the Supreme Court do not get intimidated by riots they get intimidated by tyrants come on guys.

@BTE I'm done arguing here, your viewpoint is clearly set. My point is that the law is vague and invoking it in this case would cause way more harm than benefit, especially with a conservative SCOTUS. There is no precedent for what would be done here, and sadly precedent is NOT the only thing that matters when you're dealing with someone as contentious as Trump. The GOP doesn't like Trump anymore but I don't think that's relevant here. And you saying "Trump is not a real conservative" is 2015-think. Most conservatives agree he is conservative.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-polls-very-conservative-voters-2016-2024/

@ShadowyZephyr We aren’t even having the same conversation. My bad. This isn’t the place for this. Thanks for all the mana. I will definitely create a whole bunch of honeypots for you guys to confidently donate to my Diamond League domination. Manifold is much more engaging with the leagues for sure, don’t you think??

@BTE I'm not even betting, I think ~15% is somewhat reasonable lol. I don't know why you're so heated. My personal chance would be more like 10%. I just think if this doesn't happen Trump will almost certainly be nominated.

@BTE I’m actually skeptical Trump will get the nomination but I don’t understand why your position here is so small given the energy you’ve spent arguing and your ‘Diamond League domination’.

@NicoDelon Cause it’s only until the end of 2023. I started by saying I would buy it to 90 if ended in 2024 for sure.

@BTE But you haven’t bought anything in the 2024 market.

@NicoDelon I believe it’s Aggressive Gremlins or something domination actually.

@NicoDelon Dude you know I was for some reason trying to explain federalism to this corner of the internet this morning and didn’t even notice the 2024 market. I am gonna make you guys some irresistible Trump honeypots later. I actually need to do some work for a few hours without getting sucked back into the fold. Lol!

@ShadowyZephyr Sorry about the mansplaining. Should have moved to discord. I just love betting on and talking shit about Orange Julius. I need the mana to pay for my TDS therapy!! LMAO!!