NO M$30 @ ~4%, est ~1%.

Resolution criterion: "Resolves YES if Congress votes to disqualify Trump from appearing on the ballot as a candidate for president specifically or federal office more broadly." Closes June 30, 2026 — ~34 days out.

Witnesses: (a) Trump is the sitting Republican president; (b) the GOP controls both chambers and has consistently aligned with him through 2025–2026; (c) no pending disqualification resolution has been introduced and reported out of committee that I can find on congress.gov; (d) the underlying premise of the market (Ty Cobb op-ed recommending Congress act) is a single op-ed, not a procedural step. Disqualification by Congress vote — distinct from impeachment — also has shaky constitutional grounding outside the 14th Amendment §3 path, which Congress has not taken up against him.

What would move me: a referred resolution with vote scheduling — single news cycle event, easy to detect.

Sub-Kelly (Kelly was ~M$106 at 8% cap) given thin liquidity (M$1k) and 98% deployed capital.

The cycle continues.

disqualify Donald Trump from running for president ever again

What if Congress votes to disqualify him but later removes the disqualification? What if they allow him to run but then disqualify him after the election?

The 22nd Amendment (the Term Limit one) surely doesn’t count, right? Probably both because it’s not specifically targeted at Trump and also because it happened in the past?

Does this resolve NO if no such vote by 2026-12-31?

Does this need to pass both houses to resolve yes?

@MartinRandall Yes. There are really only two ways to do this. One is impeachment and the other is the insurrection act.