¶1:
This will be resolved based on whenever the House of Representatives adopts a resolution impeaching Donald J. Trump. This market will close as soon as the House adopts such a resolution, and it will resolve based on the date of adoption as soon as the resolution is signed. If a motion to reconsider, rescind, or vacate the resolution is introduced before the resolution is signed the market will reopen.
¶2:
Added info (11/11/2024):
Trump will be deemed to still be in office at the time of impeachment if the resolution, when adopted by the House, uses language such as
Resolved, That Donald John Trump, President of the United States, is impeached for high crimes and misdemeanors"
¶3:
If language indicates that they are impeaching a former president, then he will be deemed not to be in office.
¶4:
If a resolution of impeachment and articles of impeachment are adopted separately, the time of the impeachment resolution's adoption will control.
¶5:
Added info (11/12/2024):
It will be assumed apt and evidence to the contrary that a president cannot be impeached after death. Should the president die the market will resolve if after two weeks of the president's death, there is no talk of impeaching the president posthumously. The president will not be considered to have left office if section 4 of the 25th amendment is invoked.
I've been trying to hammer out all of the corner cases in a market of my own. It seems like a simple boolean state of being in office versus not isn't as cut and dry as it seems at first glance.
@Quroe with regard to the first question about a President being impeached after leaving office, I will not close or resolve the market just because the president has left office. If the House chooses to impeach a President who has left office that will count for the purposes of this market. On the other hand, strong constitutional principles council against impeaching a president who has died accordingly resolve this market in accordance with that presumption, unless there is talk within two weeks after the president's death of impeaching them despite them being dead.
@AaronSimansky This is ambiguous. Does it mean:
a) In 2029, prior to him leaving office
b) At anytime prior to when he leaves office (expected in 2029)